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Shock result as Empoli defy the odds to beat Sudtirol 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Empoli beat Sudtirol 1-2 at Stadio Marco Druso, Regular Season - 7, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sudtirol 2.38 xG and Empoli 0.81 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Sudtirol fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Empoli outscored their 0.81 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sudtirol attack 1.18 / defence 1.04 against Empoli attack 0.70 / defence 1.55, drawn from 44/6 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sudtirol 70% | Draw 22% | Empoli 9%, with Sudtirol to win its most likely call at 70%. Instead the game produced a Empoli win, an outcome the model had rated at just 9% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sudtirol 57%, Empoli 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sudtirol's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Empoli's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Sudtirol arrived the stronger side — 1.25 PPG against 0.84. Form was overturned, with Empoli winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Empoli (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights