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Shock result as Cittadella defy the odds to beat Sudtirol 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cittadella beat Sudtirol 1-2 at Stadio Marco Druso, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sudtirol 1.70 xG and Cittadella 1.38 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sudtirol attack 0.90 / defence 1.49 against Cittadella attack 0.88 / defence 1.52, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sudtirol 44% | Draw 27% | Cittadella 30%, with Sudtirol to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Cittadella win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sudtirol 52%, Cittadella 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sudtirol's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Cittadella's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sudtirol 1.14 PPG, Cittadella 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cittadella win broke the near-deadlock. Cittadella (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.79 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights