🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Sudtirol and Carrarese share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadio Marco Druso, Regular Season - 30, as Sudtirol and Carrarese drew 2-2 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sudtirol 1.61 xG and Carrarese 1.02 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Carrarese outscored their 1.02 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sudtirol attack 1.02 / defence 1.16 against Carrarese attack 0.81 / defence 1.30, drawn from 67/29 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sudtirol 49% | Draw 29% | Carrarese 22%, with Sudtirol to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sudtirol 59%, Carrarese 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sudtirol's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Carrarese's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sudtirol 1.14 PPG, Carrarese 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Carrarese (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.79 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights