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Stalemate at Sudtirol's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadio Marco Druso, Relegation Play-offs - Final, as Sudtirol and Bari drew 0-0 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sudtirol 1.17 xG and Bari 1.04 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sudtirol fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Bari landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sudtirol attack 0.71 / defence 1.08 against Bari attack 0.90 / defence 1.18, drawn from 76/76 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sudtirol 37% | Draw 32% | Bari 31%, with Sudtirol to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sudtirol 48%, Bari 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sudtirol's trading profile (77 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Bari's trading profile (77 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sudtirol 1.14 PPG, Bari 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sudtirol (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.16 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line. Bari (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.84 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights