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Serie B · Relegation Play-offs - Final

Kick-off

Fri 22 May 2026

19:00

Venue

Stadio Marco Druso

Competition

Serie B

Italy

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Sudtirol Win

37%

Sudtirol

2.70

32%

Draw

3.11

31%

Bari

3.25

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

13.3%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 0

12.8%

Home win

0 – 1

11.4%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.17

Sudtirol xG

Total xG

2.21

1.04

Bari xG

37%
32%
31%
SudtirolDrawBari

2.70

37%

Home win

3.11

32%

Draw

3.25

31%

Away win

Goals Markets

65%

Over 1.5

1.54

35%

Under 1.5

2.86

38%

Over 2.5

2.63

62%

Under 2.5

1.61

18%

Over 3.5

5.56

82%

Under 3.5

1.22

7%

Over 4.5

14.29

93%

Under 4.5

1.08

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

46%

BTTS Yes

2.16

54%

BTTS No

1.86

Clean Sheet

35%

Sudtirol

2.84

31%

Bari

3.22

Win to Nil

13%

Sudtirol

7.66

10%

Bari

10.47

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 10.9 11.4 6.0 2.1 0.5 0.1
1 12.8 13.3 7.0 2.4 0.6 0.1
2 7.5 7.8 4.1 1.4 0.4 0.1
3 2.9 3.0 1.6 0.6 0.1
4 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.2
5 0.2 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.170
λ Away (xG) 1.044
Total xG 2.214
League avg home goals 1.406
League avg away goals 1.076
Sudtirol attack strength 0.708
Sudtirol defence strength 1.079
Bari attack strength 0.899
Bari defence strength 1.176
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 76 / 76