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Stalemate at Sudtirol's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadio Marco Druso, Regular Season - 16, as Sudtirol and Bari drew 0-0 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sudtirol 1.45 xG and Bari 0.89 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sudtirol fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Bari landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sudtirol attack 0.80 / defence 1.08 against Bari attack 0.78 / defence 1.36, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sudtirol 49% | Draw 29% | Bari 22%, with Sudtirol to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sudtirol 51%, Bari 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sudtirol's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Bari's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sudtirol 1.13 PPG, Bari 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sudtirol (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. Bari (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.81 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights