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Stalemate at Sudtirol's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sudtirol and Bari finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Marco Druso, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sudtirol 1.57 xG and Bari 1.07 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sudtirol fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Bari landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sudtirol attack 1.03 / defence 1.06 against Bari attack 0.87 / defence 1.16, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sudtirol 48% | Draw 27% | Bari 25%, with Sudtirol to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sudtirol 53%, Bari 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sudtirol's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Bari's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sudtirol 1.23 PPG, Bari 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sudtirol (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. Bari (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights