🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Avellino defy the odds to beat Sudtirol 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Avellino beat Sudtirol 0-1 at Stadio Marco Druso, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sudtirol 1.68 xG and Avellino 1.05 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sudtirol fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sudtirol attack 0.93 / defence 1.08 against Avellino attack 0.91 / defence 1.36, drawn from 51/13 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sudtirol 50% | Draw 29% | Avellino 21%, with Sudtirol to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Avellino win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sudtirol 38%, Avellino 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sudtirol's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Avellino's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sudtirol 1.00 PPG, Avellino 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Avellino win broke the near-deadlock. Sudtirol (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward. Avellino (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights