Sudtirol 2-2 Ascoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ascoli at 44%, yet in-form Sudtirol provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sudtirol vs Ascoli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sudtirol host Ascoli at Stadio Marco Druso in Serie B, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 27 November 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sudtirol — All Games: 5W 5D 0L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sudtirol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Marco Druso, Sudtirol have gone 2W 3D 1L this season (6 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.50 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Marco Druso this season.
Across all Serie B games this season, Ascoli have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Ascoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ascoli away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Sudtirol carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Profile
Sudtirol in-play tendencies (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Ascoli in-play tendencies (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sudtirol 62% and Ascoli 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sudtirol 46% | Ascoli 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sudtirol 0.98 xG and Ascoli 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sudtirol attack 0.942 / defence 1.130 | Ascoli attack 1.076 / defence 0.841. League average goals — home 1.244 / away 1.113. Data: 13 Sudtirol games / 51 Ascoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sudtirol 26% | Draw 31% | Ascoli 44%. Fair-value odds: Sudtirol 3.85 | Draw 3.23 | Ascoli 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ascoli as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sudtirol (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ascoli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.34 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Sudtirol 83% | Ascoli 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sudtirol vs Ascoli | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadio Marco Druso • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Nov 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sudtirol 26% | Draw 31% | Ascoli 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Sudtirol 0.98 / Ascoli 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Sudtirol attack 0.942 / def 1.130 | Ascoli attack 1.076 / def 0.841 | league avg home 1.244 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: Ascoli (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Sudtirol xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Ascoli xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sudtirol vs Ascoli kick off?
Sudtirol vs Ascoli kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 27 November 2022 at Stadio Marco Druso.
What was the final score in Sudtirol vs Ascoli?
Sudtirol 2 - 2 Ascoli.
Where is Sudtirol vs Ascoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marco Druso.
What competition is Sudtirol vs Ascoli part of?
Sudtirol vs Ascoli is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sudtirol vs Ascoli?
Our statistical model gives Sudtirol a 26% chance of winning, Ascoli a 44% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Ascoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sudtirol vs Ascoli?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Sudtirol and Ascoli will score (BTTS).
Will Sudtirol vs Ascoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Ascoli?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sudtirol and Ascoli in?
Sudtirol (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-D-D. Ascoli (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sudtirol's attack at 0.94x the league average against Ascoli's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 0.98 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ascoli's attack versus Sudtirol's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.4%), 0-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ascoli Win
26%
3.89
31%
3.27
44%
2.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
9.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Sudtirol xG
Total xG
2.34
1.35
Ascoli xG
3.89
26%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
2.29
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
26%
3.87
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
7%
15.04
16%
6.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 13.1 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.9 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.3 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sudtirol vs Ascoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Sudtirol and Ascoli expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Sudtirol and 1.35 for Ascoli, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Sudtirol vs Ascoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sudtirol's recent record stands at 5W 5D 3L from 13 games, a 1.54 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-D in the last five. The sample for Sudtirol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ascoli, meanwhile, have gone 5W 4D 4L across 13 games — 1.46 PPG, with W-W-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Ascoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sudtirol on 1.54 PPG, Ascoli on 1.46. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Sudtirol have managed 2W 3D 1L from 6 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ascoli's away record stands at 3W 2D 1L across 6 trips, a 1.83 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Sudtirol are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Ascoli are on 1.23 scored and 1.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sudtirol have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Ascoli in 62%.
Last 13 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sudtirol
Blended
Ascoli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sudtirol and Ascoli in coming into this match?
Sudtirol have gone 5W 5D 3L in their last 13 games (1.54 PPG), while Ascoli have gone 5W 4D 4L in their last 13 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sudtirol at home or Ascoli away?
Ascoli's away record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sudtirol at home: 1.50 PPG; Ascoli away: 1.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sudtirol and Ascoli runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sudtirol go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Sudtirol's record when hosting Ascoli specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Sudtirol
1
Draws
1
Ascoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Ascoli?
From 4 meetings on record, Sudtirol have won 2, Ascoli have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sudtirol and Ascoli last play each other?
They last met on 4 February 2024, when Ascoli 1-2 Sudtirol.
Who has won more matches between Sudtirol and Ascoli?
Sudtirol have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Ascoli see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Sudtirol at 83%, Ascoli at 50%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 50% for Sudtirol and 17% for Ascoli.
On the defensive side: Ascoli in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sudtirol home games / Ascoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sudtirol play Ascoli?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Sudtirol's games and 50% of Ascoli's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sudtirol vs Ascoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Sudtirol's recent games and 17% of Ascoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sudtirol and Ascoli tend to score early?
Sudtirol have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Ascoli in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sudtirol and Ascoli share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Marco Druso, Regular Season - 14, as Sudtirol and Ascoli drew 2-2 in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sudtirol 0.98 xG and Ascoli 1.35 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Sudtirol beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sudtirol attack 0.94 / defence 1.13 against Ascoli attack 1.08 / defence 0.84, drawn from 13/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sudtirol 26% | Draw 31% | Ascoli 44%, with Ascoli to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sudtirol 46%, Ascoli 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sudtirol's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Ascoli's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sudtirol 1.54 PPG, Ascoli 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sudtirol (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ascoli (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.