Frosinone 2-2 Cagliari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Frosinone at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Frosinone vs Cagliari encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cagliari make the trip to Stadio Benito Stirpe to face Frosinone in Serie B, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Sunday 27 November 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Frosinone's overall Serie B record this term: 8W 0D 2L from 10 games (2.40 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Frosinone, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Frosinone at Stadio Benito Stirpe this season: 9W 0D 1L from 10 home games — 2.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Benito Stirpe. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Cagliari (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cagliari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cagliari away from home this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Frosinone's 2.40 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Cagliari's 1.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading & In-Play
Frosinone — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Cagliari — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Frosinone 45% versus Cagliari 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Frosinone 49% | Cagliari 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Frosinone 1.48 xG and Cagliari 0.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Frosinone attack 1.103 / defence 0.599 | Cagliari attack 0.878 / defence 1.083. League average goals — home 1.244 / away 1.113. Frosinone's defence rating of 0.599 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 51 Frosinone games / 13 Cagliari games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Frosinone 58% | Draw 29% | Cagliari 13%. Fair-value odds: Frosinone 1.72 | Draw 3.45 | Cagliari 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Frosinone (58%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Frosinone are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 29% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.07 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 36%. Form rates corroborate: Frosinone 30% | Cagliari 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Frosinone vs Cagliari | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadio Benito Stirpe • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Nov 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Frosinone 58% | Draw 29% | Cagliari 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 36% | xG Frosinone 1.48 / Cagliari 0.58 • Poisson strength factors: Frosinone attack 1.103 / def 0.599 | Cagliari attack 0.878 / def 1.083 | league avg home 1.244 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: Frosinone (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Frosinone xG
Expected Goals
0.58
Cagliari xG
36%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Frosinone vs Cagliari kick off?
Frosinone vs Cagliari kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 27 November 2022 at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What was the final score in Frosinone vs Cagliari?
Frosinone 2 - 2 Cagliari.
Where is Frosinone vs Cagliari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What competition is Frosinone vs Cagliari part of?
Frosinone vs Cagliari is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Frosinone vs Cagliari?
Our statistical model gives Frosinone a 58% chance of winning, Cagliari a 13% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Frosinone the favourite.
Will both teams score in Frosinone vs Cagliari?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Frosinone and Cagliari will score (BTTS).
Will Frosinone vs Cagliari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and Cagliari?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Frosinone and Cagliari in?
Frosinone (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Cagliari (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Frosinone's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Cagliari's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.48. Flip it around — Cagliari's attack (0.88x) against Frosinone's defence (0.60x) — and the away total comes out at 0.58.
These ratings are built from 51/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 17.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 2-0 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Frosinone Win
58%
1.73
29%
3.47
13%
7.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.9%
Home win
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Frosinone xG
Total xG
2.07
0.58
Cagliari xG
1.73
58%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
7.55
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.81
64%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
56%
1.79
23%
4.41
Win to Nil
32%
3.10
3%
33.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 7.4 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.7 | 11.0 | 3.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.9 | 8.1 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Frosinone vs Cagliari?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.3%.
How many goals are Frosinone and Cagliari expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Frosinone and 0.58 for Cagliari, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Frosinone vs Cagliari?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Frosinone come into this having played 51 games, going 25W 13D 13L for 1.73 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Frosinone is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cagliari sit at 0.92 PPG from 51 outings (10W 17D 24L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-D across their last five. The sample for Cagliari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Frosinone carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.81 PPG clear of Cagliari — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Frosinone's home form reads 16W 6D 3L across 25 games on their own ground, a 2.16 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.73 PPG overall — Frosinone are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Cagliari have taken 0.84 points per game from 25 outings (4W 9D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Frosinone come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Frosinone are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Cagliari are on 0.94 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cagliari in 61%.
Defensively: Frosinone have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Frosinone
Blended
Cagliari
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Frosinone and Cagliari in coming into this match?
Frosinone have gone 25W 13D 13L in their last 51 games (1.73 PPG), while Cagliari have gone 10W 17D 24L in their last 51 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Frosinone at home or Cagliari away?
Frosinone's home record (2.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Frosinone at home: 2.16 PPG; Cagliari away: 0.84 PPG.
Have Frosinone or Cagliari been keeping clean sheets recently?
Frosinone have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Cagliari in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 January 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Frosinone have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Cagliari — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Frosinone
2
Draws
1
Cagliari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and Cagliari?
From 4 meetings on record, Frosinone have won 1, Cagliari have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Frosinone and Cagliari last play each other?
They last met on 21 January 2024, when Frosinone 3-1 Cagliari.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Frosinone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Frosinone 40%, Cagliari 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Frosinone) and 44% (Cagliari).
On the defensive side: Frosinone keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Cagliari in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Frosinone home games / Cagliari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Frosinone play Cagliari?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Frosinone's recent matches and 48% of Cagliari's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Frosinone vs Cagliari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Frosinone's recent games and 44% of Cagliari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Frosinone and Cagliari tend to score early?
Frosinone have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Cagliari in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Frosinone and Cagliari share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Frosinone and Cagliari finished level at 2-2 at Stadio Benito Stirpe, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Frosinone 1.48 xG and Cagliari 0.58 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Cagliari outscored their 0.58 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Frosinone attack 1.10 / defence 0.60 against Cagliari attack 0.88 / defence 1.08, drawn from 51/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Frosinone 58% | Draw 29% | Cagliari 13%, with Frosinone to win its most likely call at 58%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Frosinone 49%, Cagliari 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Frosinone's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Cagliari's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Frosinone arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 0.92. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Frosinone (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cagliari (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.