Sudtirol vs Ascoli – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Sudtirol at 46%, yet in-form Ascoli provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sudtirol vs Ascoli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sudtirol host Ascoli at Stadio Marco Druso in Serie B, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 10 October 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sudtirol — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D D W D W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Sudtirol have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadio Marco Druso, Sudtirol have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Serie B games this season, Ascoli have recorded 2W 1D 0L from 3 outings — 2.33 PPG. Last five: W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.33 per game is modest, conceding 0.67 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Ascoli have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form points away from home here. Ascoli's 2.33 PPG return is 1.23 points per game ahead of Sudtirol's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Sudtirol have won 2, Ascoli 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 4 Feb 2024, ended 2–1 with Sudtirol winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Sudtirol in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 0% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time.
Ascoli in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sudtirol 33% versus Ascoli 67%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sudtirol 0% | Ascoli 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sudtirol 1.31 xG and Ascoli 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sudtirol attack 0.924 / defence 0.779 | Ascoli attack 0.983 / defence 1.020. League average goals — home 1.391 / away 1.158. Sudtirol's defence rating of 0.779 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 41 Sudtirol games / 3 Ascoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sudtirol 46% | Draw 28% | Ascoli 25%. Fair-value odds: Sudtirol 2.17 | Draw 3.57 | Ascoli 4.00. Sudtirol hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sudtirol as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Ascoli (2.33 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sudtirol offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.20 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates are neutral: Sudtirol 40% | Ascoli 67%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sudtirol vs Ascoli | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadio Marco Druso • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sudtirol 46% | Draw 28% | Ascoli 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 43% | xG Sudtirol 1.31 / Ascoli 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Sudtirol attack 0.924 / def 0.779 | Ascoli attack 0.983 / def 1.020 | league avg home 1.391 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Sudtirol (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Sudtirol xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Ascoli xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sudtirol vs Ascoli kick off?
Sudtirol vs Ascoli is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Saturday 10 October 2026 at Stadio Marco Druso.
Where is Sudtirol vs Ascoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marco Druso.
What competition is Sudtirol vs Ascoli part of?
Sudtirol vs Ascoli is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sudtirol vs Ascoli?
Our statistical model gives Sudtirol a 46% chance of winning, Ascoli a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sudtirol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sudtirol vs Ascoli?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Sudtirol and Ascoli will score (BTTS).
Will Sudtirol vs Ascoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Ascoli?
Record (4 meetings): Sudtirol 2W | Draws 1 | Ascoli 1W.
What form are Sudtirol and Ascoli in?
Sudtirol (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-D-W. Ascoli (all comps): 2W-1D-0L in 3 | 2.33 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 0.67 | L5 W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sudtirol's attack at 0.92x the league average against Ascoli's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ascoli's attack versus Sudtirol's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.9%), 0-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sudtirol Win
46%
2.15
28%
3.54
25%
3.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Sudtirol xG
Total xG
2.20
0.89
Ascoli xG
2.15
46%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
3.96
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
27%
3.71
Win to Nil
19%
5.22
7%
14.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 9.8 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.6 | 12.9 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sudtirol vs Ascoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Sudtirol and Ascoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Sudtirol and 0.89 for Ascoli, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Sudtirol vs Ascoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sudtirol's recent record stands at 2W 1D 0L from 3 games, a 2.33 PPG return, with W-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Sudtirol, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ascoli, meanwhile, have gone 2W 1D 0L across 3 games — 2.33 PPG, with W-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Ascoli, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sudtirol on 2.33 PPG, Ascoli on 2.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Sudtirol are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per game recently; Ascoli are on 1.33 scored and 0.67 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Ascoli in 67%.
Defensively: Sudtirol have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 3 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sudtirol
Early Season
Ascoli
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sudtirol and Ascoli in coming into this match?
Sudtirol have gone 2W 1D 0L in their last 3 games (2.33 PPG), while Ascoli have gone 2W 1D 0L in their last 3 (2.33 PPG).
Have Sudtirol or Ascoli been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sudtirol have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their recent games, Ascoli in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sudtirol and Ascoli runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sudtirol go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Sudtirol's record when hosting Ascoli specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Sudtirol
1
Draws
1
Ascoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Ascoli?
From 4 meetings on record, Sudtirol have won 2, Ascoli have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sudtirol and Ascoli last play each other?
They last met on 4 February 2024, when Ascoli 1-2 Sudtirol.
Who has won more matches between Sudtirol and Ascoli?
Sudtirol have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sudtirol tend to start slowly — only 0% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Ascoli see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sudtirol 33%, Ascoli 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Sudtirol and 33% for Ascoli.
On the defensive side: Sudtirol keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Ascoli in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sudtirol home games / Ascoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sudtirol play Ascoli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Sudtirol's recent matches and 67% of Ascoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sudtirol vs Ascoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Sudtirol's recent games and 33% of Ascoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sudtirol and Ascoli tend to score early?
Sudtirol have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Ascoli in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.