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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Spezia and Venezia share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Spezia and Venezia finished level at 2-2 at Stadio Alberto Picco, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Spezia 1.20 xG and Venezia 1.65 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Spezia beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spezia attack 1.08 / defence 1.16 against Venezia attack 1.31 / defence 0.80, drawn from 74/36 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Spezia 26% | Draw 29% | Venezia 46%, with Venezia to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spezia 42%, Venezia 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Spezia's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Venezia's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Spezia 1.32 PPG, Venezia 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Spezia (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights