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Prediction vindicated as Spezia edge out Sassuolo 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Spezia beat Sassuolo 2-1 at Stadio Alberto Picco, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Spezia 1.56 xG and Sassuolo 1.05 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spezia attack 1.23 / defence 0.80 against Sassuolo attack 1.22 / defence 1.05, drawn from 60/22 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Spezia 46% | Draw 31% | Sassuolo 23%, with Spezia to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spezia 42%, Sassuolo 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Spezia's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Sassuolo's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Spezia 1.43 PPG, Sassuolo 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Spezia win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights