🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Spezia at 46%, yet in-form Sassuolo provide a compelling counter-argument — this Spezia vs Sassuolo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Spezia host Sassuolo at Stadio Alberto Picco in Serie B, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 24 January 2025 at 19:30 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Spezia stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Spezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Stadio Alberto Picco, Spezia have gone 7W 3D 0L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Alberto Picco. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Spezia are significantly better at Stadio Alberto Picco than their overall form suggests.

Sassuolo — All Games: 9W 0D 1L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 2.70 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sassuolo, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Sassuolo have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Sassuolo are 0.90 PPG ahead (2.70 vs 1.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Spezia, 2 for Sassuolo and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Spezia in-play and half-time data (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

Sassuolo in-play and half-time data (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spezia 45% versus Sassuolo 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spezia 42% | Sassuolo 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Spezia 1.56 xG and Sassuolo 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spezia attack 1.229 / defence 0.797 | Sassuolo attack 1.219 / defence 1.047. League average goals — home 1.212 / away 1.083. Sassuolo have an above-average attack strength of 1.219 — the away xG of 1.05 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Spezia's defence rating of 0.797 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 60 Spezia games / 22 Sassuolo games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Spezia 46% | Draw 31% | Sassuolo 23%. Fair-value odds: Spezia 2.17 | Draw 3.23 | Sassuolo 4.35. Spezia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Spezia are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sassuolo (2.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Spezia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.61 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Spezia 50% | Sassuolo 60% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights