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Prediction vindicated as Spezia edge out Sampdoria 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Spezia beat Sampdoria 1-0 at Stadio Alberto Picco, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Spezia 1.31 xG and Sampdoria 1.25 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sampdoria landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spezia attack 0.80 / defence 1.25 against Sampdoria attack 0.94 / defence 1.19, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Spezia 37% | Draw 30% | Sampdoria 34%, with Spezia to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spezia 40%, Sampdoria 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Spezia's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.

Sampdoria's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Spezia arrived the stronger side — 1.46 PPG against 1.04. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Spezia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Sampdoria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights