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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Spezia cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Sampdoria.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Spezia beat Sampdoria 2-0 at Stadio Alberto Picco, Regular Season - 32, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Spezia 1.75 xG and Sampdoria 1.21 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Sampdoria landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spezia attack 1.10 / defence 0.95 against Sampdoria attack 1.08 / defence 1.25, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Spezia 49% | Draw 26% | Sampdoria 25%, with Spezia to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spezia 41%, Sampdoria 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Spezia's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.

Sampdoria's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Spezia 1.43 PPG, Sampdoria 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Spezia win broke the near-deadlock. Spezia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line. Sampdoria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights