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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Spezia cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Salernitana.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Spezia beat Salernitana 2-0 at Stadio Alberto Picco, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Spezia 1.53 xG and Salernitana 0.56 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spezia attack 1.11 / defence 0.88 against Salernitana attack 0.54 / defence 1.06, drawn from 72/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Spezia 60% | Draw 28% | Salernitana 12%, with Spezia to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spezia 42%, Salernitana 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Spezia's trading profile (72 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.

Salernitana's trading profile (72 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Spezia arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.74. That form edge translated into the three points. Spezia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights