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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Spezia and Palermo share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadio Alberto Picco, Regular Season - 25, as Spezia and Palermo drew 2-2 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Spezia 1.69 xG and Palermo 0.81 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Palermo outscored their 0.81 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spezia attack 1.26 / defence 0.80 against Palermo attack 0.93 / defence 1.11, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Spezia 57% | Draw 27% | Palermo 16%, with Spezia to win its most likely call at 57%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spezia 42%, Palermo 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Spezia's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Palermo's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Spezia 1.48 PPG, Palermo 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Spezia (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights