🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Spezia cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Cosenza.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Spezia beat Cosenza 3-1 at Stadio Alberto Picco, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Spezia 2.14 xG and Cosenza 0.97 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Spezia beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spezia attack 1.18 / defence 0.98 against Cosenza attack 0.85 / defence 1.38, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Spezia 63% | Draw 22% | Cosenza 15%, with Spezia to win its most likely call at 63%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spezia 43%, Cosenza 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Spezia's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Cosenza's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Spezia 1.43 PPG, Cosenza 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Spezia win broke the near-deadlock. Spezia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm. Cosenza (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights