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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Spezia and Mantova share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadio Alberto Picco, Regular Season - 19, as Spezia and Mantova drew 1-1 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Spezia 2.21 xG and Mantova 0.70 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Spezia fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spezia attack 1.39 / defence 0.74 against Mantova attack 0.91 / defence 1.28, drawn from 56/18 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Spezia 71% | Draw 20% | Mantova 9%, with Spezia to win its most likely call at 71%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spezia 39%, Mantova 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Spezia's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 61% of the time, and conceded here.

Mantova's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Spezia arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 1.22. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Spezia (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights