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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Juve Stabia cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Spezia.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Juve Stabia beat Spezia 1-3 at Stadio Alberto Picco, Regular Season - 4, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Spezia 1.07 xG and Juve Stabia 0.99 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Juve Stabia outscored their 0.99 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spezia attack 0.90 / defence 1.00 against Juve Stabia attack 0.95 / defence 1.00, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Spezia 33% | Draw 38% | Juve Stabia 29%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The actual Juve Stabia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spezia 39%, Juve Stabia 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Spezia's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Juve Stabia's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Spezia 1.68 PPG, Juve Stabia 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Juve Stabia win broke the near-deadlock. Spezia (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Juve Stabia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights