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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Spezia and Juve Stabia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadio Alberto Picco, Regular Season - 21, as Spezia and Juve Stabia drew 1-1 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Spezia 1.83 xG and Juve Stabia 0.80 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Spezia fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spezia attack 1.30 / defence 0.78 against Juve Stabia attack 0.98 / defence 1.15, drawn from 58/20 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Spezia 60% | Draw 26% | Juve Stabia 14%, with Spezia to win its most likely call at 60%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spezia 35%, Juve Stabia 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Spezia's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time, and conceded here.

Juve Stabia's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Spezia arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.45. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Spezia (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.11 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights