🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Carrarese cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Spezia.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Carrarese beat Spezia 0-2 at Stadio Alberto Picco, Regular Season - 1, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Spezia 1.57 xG and Carrarese 1.04 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Spezia fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Carrarese outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spezia attack 1.14 / defence 0.99 against Carrarese attack 0.93 / defence 1.03, drawn from 38/38 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Spezia 48% | Draw 28% | Carrarese 24%, with Spezia to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Carrarese win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spezia 40%, Carrarese 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Spezia's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.

Carrarese's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Spezia arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.18. Form was overturned, with Carrarese winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Spezia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Carrarese (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.79 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.63 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights