🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Spezia at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Spezia vs Carrarese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Carrarese make the trip to Stadio Alberto Picco to face Spezia in Serie B, Regular Season - 1. The match kicks off on Sunday 24 August 2025 at 18:00 UTC.

Form

Spezia (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Spezia haven't played a Serie B game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

In front of their own supporters this season, Spezia have posted 5W 1D 4L at Stadio Alberto Picco — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Carrarese's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Carrarese haven't played a Serie B game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Carrarese away from home this season: 0W 5D 5L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Spezia, 1.30 for Carrarese — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Spezia have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Carrarese in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Spezia 2W, Carrarese 0W, 0D.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 19 Jan 2025, ended 4–0 with Spezia winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Spezia — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.

Carrarese — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spezia 45% versus Carrarese 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spezia 40% | Carrarese 45%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Spezia 1.57 xG and Carrarese 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spezia attack 1.135 / defence 0.990 | Carrarese attack 0.930 / defence 1.027. League average goals — home 1.343 / away 1.129. Data: 38 Spezia games / 38 Carrarese games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Spezia 48% | Draw 28% | Carrarese 24%. Fair-value odds: Spezia 2.08 | Draw 3.57 | Carrarese 4.17. Spezia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Spezia as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Spezia if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Spezia 60% | Carrarese 70% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights