Spezia 0-0 Bari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Spezia at 41% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Spezia vs Bari encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Bari travel to Stadio Alberto Picco to take on Spezia in Serie B (matchday 10). The game is scheduled for Friday 25 October 2024 at 20:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Spezia — last 10 games: 6W 4D 0L, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: D W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Spezia have gone 8W 2D 0L in their last 10 home games (2.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Bari have recorded 3W 5D 2L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Bari have posted 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Spezia are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.80 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Spezia's last 10 home games and Bari's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Spezia, 0 for Bari and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 3 Mar 2024, ended Spezia 1–1 Bari — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Spezia in-play and half-time data (last 47 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Bari in-play and half-time data (last 47 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spezia 51% versus Bari 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spezia 45% | Bari 38%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Spezia surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Bari have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Bari surrender HT leads in 50% of cases while Spezia recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 40% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spezia 1.45 xG and Bari 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spezia attack 1.214 / defence 0.967 | Bari attack 1.007 / defence 0.951. League average goals — home 1.256 / away 1.216. Data: built from Spezia's last 47 games and Bari's last 47.
Result probabilities: Spezia 41% | Draw 30% | Bari 29%. Fair-value odds: Spezia 2.42 | Draw 3.38 | Bari 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Spezia are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Spezia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.64 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Spezia 70% (last 10 home games) | Bari 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spezia vs Bari | Competition: Serie B, matchday 10 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Picco • Kick-off: Friday 25 October 2024 at 20:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spezia 41% | Draw 30% | Bari 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Spezia 1.45 / Bari 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Spezia attack 1.214 / def 0.967 | Bari attack 1.007 / def 0.951 | league avg home 1.256 / away 1.216 • Poisson stance: Spezia (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Spezia xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Bari xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Spezia vs Bari FAQs
What time does Spezia vs Bari kick off?
Spezia vs Bari kicked off at 20:30 UK time on Friday 25 October 2024 at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What was the final score in Spezia vs Bari?
Spezia 0 - 0 Bari.
Where is Spezia vs Bari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What competition is Spezia vs Bari part of?
Spezia vs Bari is a Serie B fixture (matchday 10) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spezia vs Bari?
Our statistical model gives Spezia a 41% chance of winning, Bari a 29% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Spezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spezia vs Bari?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Spezia and Bari will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Spezia vs Bari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Spezia's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against Bari's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.45. The same calculation in reverse, Bari's attack versus Spezia's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Spezia's last 47 games and Bari's last 47 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Spezia Win
41%
2.42
30%
3.38
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Spezia xG
Total xG
2.64
1.19
Bari xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
23%
4.27
Win to Nil
13%
7.91
7%
14.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 8.5 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.3 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.9 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Spezia vs Bari Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Spezia vs Bari?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Spezia and Bari expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Spezia and 1.19 for Bari, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Spezia vs Bari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 47 outings, Spezia have picked up 1.34 PPG on a 14W 21D 12L record — D-W-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Bari's form line: 10W 22D 15L from 47 games, 1.11 PPG, last five W-W-D-D-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Spezia on 1.34 PPG, Bari on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Spezia have posted 1.65 PPG from their last 23 home games (10W 8D 5L).
On the road, Bari have gone 3W 10D 10L from their last 23 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Spezia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Spezia are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Bari are on 1.11 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bari in 64%.
Last 47 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spezia
Blended
Bari
Blended
Spezia (Home) vs Bari (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Spezia
Blended
Bari
Blended
❓ Spezia vs Bari Form FAQs
What form are Spezia and Bari in coming into this match?
Spezia have gone 14W 21D 12L in their last 47 games (1.34 PPG), while Bari have gone 10W 22D 15L in their last 47 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spezia at home or Bari away?
Spezia's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spezia at home: 1.65 PPG; Bari away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2023. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent was on 11 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Spezia's record when hosting Bari specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Spezia
4
Draws
1
Bari
Recent Meetings
❓ Spezia vs Bari H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Bari?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Spezia have won 1, Bari have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Spezia and Bari last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 February 2026: Bari 0-0 Spezia.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Spezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Bari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spezia 52%, Bari 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Spezia) and 48% (Bari).
On the defensive side: Spezia keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Spezia have failed to score in 35% of games; Bari in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spezia home games / Bari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Spezia vs Bari Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Spezia and Bari matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Spezia's games and 61% of Bari's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Spezia and Bari matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Spezia's recent games and 48% of Bari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Spezia and Bari matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 61% of Spezia's recent matches and 70% of Bari's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Spezia's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Alberto Picco, Regular Season - 10, as Spezia and Bari drew 0-0 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spezia 1.45 xG and Bari 1.19 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Spezia fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Bari landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spezia attack 1.21 / defence 0.97 against Bari attack 1.01 / defence 0.95, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spezia 41% | Draw 30% | Bari 29%, with Spezia to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spezia 45%, Bari 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spezia's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bari's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Spezia 1.34 PPG, Bari 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Spezia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.91 average — tighter than their form line. Bari (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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