Spezia 0-0 Bari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Spezia at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Spezia vs Bari encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Bari travel to Stadio Alberto Picco to take on Spezia. The game is scheduled for Friday 25 October 2024, 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Spezia — All Games: 6W 4D 0L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: D W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Spezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Alberto Picco, Spezia have gone 8W 2D 0L this season (10 games, 2.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Serie B games this season, Bari have recorded 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Bari have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Spezia are in the better shape of the two on current Serie B data — 0.80 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Spezia, 0 for Bari and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 3 Mar 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Spezia in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Bari in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spezia 51% versus Bari 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spezia 45% | Bari 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spezia 1.45 xG and Bari 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spezia attack 1.214 / defence 0.967 | Bari attack 1.007 / defence 0.951. League average goals — home 1.256 / away 1.216. Data: 47 Spezia games / 47 Bari games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spezia 41% | Draw 30% | Bari 29%. Fair-value odds: Spezia 2.44 | Draw 3.33 | Bari 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Spezia are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Spezia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.64 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Spezia 70% | Bari 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spezia vs Bari | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Picco • Kick-off: Friday 25 Oct 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spezia 41% | Draw 30% | Bari 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 55% | xG Spezia 1.45 / Bari 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Spezia attack 1.214 / def 0.967 | Bari attack 1.007 / def 0.951 | league avg home 1.256 / away 1.216 • Poisson stance: Spezia (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Spezia xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Bari xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spezia vs Bari kick off?
Spezia vs Bari kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 25 October 2024 at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What was the final score in Spezia vs Bari?
Spezia 0 - 0 Bari.
Where is Spezia vs Bari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What competition is Spezia vs Bari part of?
Spezia vs Bari is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spezia vs Bari?
Our statistical model gives Spezia a 41% chance of winning, Bari a 29% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Spezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spezia vs Bari?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Spezia and Bari will score (BTTS).
Will Spezia vs Bari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Bari?
Record (2 meetings): Spezia 1W | Draws 1 | Bari 0W.
What form are Spezia and Bari in?
Spezia (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-D-W-W. Bari (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-D-D.
What do the betting odds say about Spezia vs Bari?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Spezia's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against Bari's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.45. The same calculation in reverse, Bari's attack versus Spezia's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Spezia Win
41%
2.42
30%
3.38
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Spezia xG
Total xG
2.64
1.19
Bari xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
23%
4.27
Win to Nil
13%
7.91
7%
14.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 8.5 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.3 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.9 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spezia vs Bari?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Spezia and Bari expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Spezia and 1.19 for Bari, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Spezia vs Bari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 47 outings, Spezia have picked up 1.34 PPG on a 14W 21D 12L record — D-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Spezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bari's form line: 10W 22D 15L from 47 games, 1.11 PPG, last five W-W-D-D-D. The sample for Bari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Spezia on 1.34 PPG, Bari on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Spezia have posted 1.65 PPG from 23 outings (10W 8D 5L).
On the road, Bari have gone 3W 10D 10L from 23 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Spezia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Spezia are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Bari are on 1.11 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bari in 64%.
Last 47 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spezia
Blended
Bari
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spezia and Bari in coming into this match?
Spezia have gone 14W 21D 12L in their last 47 games (1.34 PPG), while Bari have gone 10W 22D 15L in their last 47 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spezia at home or Bari away?
Spezia's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spezia at home: 1.65 PPG; Bari away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Spezia and Bari runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 11 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Spezia's record when hosting Bari specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Spezia
4
Draws
1
Bari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Bari?
From 6 meetings on record, Spezia have won 1, Bari have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Spezia and Bari last play each other?
They last met on 11 February 2026, when Bari 0-0 Spezia.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Spezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Bari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spezia 52%, Bari 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Spezia) and 48% (Bari).
On the defensive side: Spezia keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Spezia have failed to score in 35% of games; Bari in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spezia home games / Bari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spezia play Bari?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Spezia's games and 61% of Bari's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Spezia vs Bari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Spezia's recent games and 48% of Bari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Spezia and Bari tend to score early?
Spezia have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Bari in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Spezia's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Alberto Picco, Regular Season - 10, as Spezia and Bari drew 0-0 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spezia 1.45 xG and Bari 1.19 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Spezia fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Bari landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spezia attack 1.21 / defence 0.97 against Bari attack 1.01 / defence 0.95, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spezia 41% | Draw 30% | Bari 29%, with Spezia to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spezia 45%, Bari 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spezia's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bari's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Spezia 1.34 PPG, Bari 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Spezia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.91 average — tighter than their form line. Bari (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.