Sampdoria 1-0 Mantova – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sampdoria at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sampdoria vs Mantova fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Mantova travel to Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris to take on Sampdoria. The game is scheduled for Sunday 27 October 2024, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sampdoria stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sampdoria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sampdoria at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Across all Serie B games this season, Mantova have recorded 3W 3D 3L from 9 outings — 1.33 PPG. Last five: L W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.22 per game is modest, conceding 1.44 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Mantova, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Mantova have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.33 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Sampdoria) versus 1.33 (Mantova). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Sampdoria trading profile (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Mantova trading profile (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sampdoria 67% and Mantova 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sampdoria 67% | Mantova 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sampdoria 1.44 xG and Mantova 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sampdoria attack 0.837 / defence 0.934 | Mantova attack 0.837 / defence 1.339. League average goals — home 1.281 / away 1.158. Mantova bring a strong defensive rating of 1.339 — this is suppressing Sampdoria's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 47 Sampdoria games / 9 Mantova games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sampdoria 47% | Draw 31% | Mantova 22%. Fair-value odds: Sampdoria 2.13 | Draw 3.23 | Mantova 4.55. Sampdoria hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sampdoria are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sampdoria offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.34 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Sampdoria 50% | Mantova 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sampdoria vs Mantova | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Oct 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sampdoria 47% | Draw 31% | Mantova 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Sampdoria 1.44 / Mantova 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Sampdoria attack 0.837 / def 0.934 | Mantova attack 0.837 / def 1.339 | league avg home 1.281 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Sampdoria (47%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Sampdoria xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Mantova xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sampdoria vs Mantova kick off?
Sampdoria vs Mantova kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 27 October 2024 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Sampdoria vs Mantova?
Sampdoria 1 - 0 Mantova.
Where is Sampdoria vs Mantova being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Sampdoria vs Mantova part of?
Sampdoria vs Mantova is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sampdoria vs Mantova?
Our statistical model gives Sampdoria a 47% chance of winning, Mantova a 22% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Sampdoria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sampdoria vs Mantova?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Sampdoria and Mantova will score (BTTS).
Will Sampdoria vs Mantova have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Mantova?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sampdoria and Mantova in?
Sampdoria (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. Mantova (all comps): 3W-3D-3L in 9 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.22 / GA 1.44 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
What do the betting odds say about Sampdoria vs Mantova?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sampdoria's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Mantova's defensive record (1.34x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.44. The same calculation in reverse, Mantova's attack versus Sampdoria's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.2%), 0-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sampdoria Win
47%
2.11
31%
3.22
22%
4.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Sampdoria xG
Total xG
2.34
0.91
Mantova xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
4.63
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.11
52%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
24%
4.20
Win to Nil
19%
5.22
5%
19.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.8 | 12.5 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.0 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sampdoria vs Mantova?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Sampdoria and Mantova expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Sampdoria and 0.91 for Mantova, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Sampdoria vs Mantova?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 9 outings, Sampdoria have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 3W 2D 4L record — L-W-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Sampdoria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mantova's form line: 3W 3D 3L from 9 games, 1.33 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-D. The sample for Mantova is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sampdoria on 1.22 PPG, Mantova on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Sampdoria have posted 1.00 PPG from 4 outings (1W 1D 2L).
On the road, Mantova have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 away games — 0.25 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.33 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Mantova's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sampdoria come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sampdoria are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Mantova are on 1.22 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sampdoria have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 9 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sampdoria
Blended
Mantova
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sampdoria and Mantova in coming into this match?
Sampdoria have gone 3W 2D 4L in their last 9 games (1.22 PPG), while Mantova have gone 3W 3D 3L in their last 9 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sampdoria at home or Mantova away?
Sampdoria's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sampdoria at home: 1.00 PPG; Mantova away: 0.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Mantova have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Sampdoria's record when hosting Mantova specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Sampdoria
1
Draws
2
Mantova
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Mantova?
From 4 meetings on record, Sampdoria have won 1, Mantova have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sampdoria and Mantova last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Mantova 2-1 Sampdoria.
Who has won more matches between Sampdoria and Mantova?
Mantova have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sampdoria see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Mantova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sampdoria 25%, Mantova 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Sampdoria and 25% for Mantova.
On the defensive side: Sampdoria keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Sampdoria have failed to score in 50% of games; Mantova in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sampdoria home games / Mantova away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sampdoria play Mantova?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Sampdoria's recent matches and 50% of Mantova's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sampdoria vs Mantova usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Sampdoria's recent games and 25% of Mantova's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sampdoria and Mantova tend to score early?
Sampdoria have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Mantova in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sampdoria edge out Mantova 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sampdoria beat Mantova 1-0 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sampdoria 1.44 xG and Mantova 0.91 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Mantova landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sampdoria attack 0.84 / defence 0.93 against Mantova attack 0.84 / defence 1.34, drawn from 47/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sampdoria 47% | Draw 31% | Mantova 22%, with Sampdoria to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sampdoria 67%, Mantova 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sampdoria's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Mantova's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sampdoria 1.22 PPG, Mantova 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sampdoria win broke the near-deadlock. Mantova (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.