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Sassuolo cruise to a comfortable 5-3 victory over Sudtirol.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sassuolo beat Sudtirol 5-3 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sassuolo 1.82 xG and Sudtirol 0.81 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 5-3 for 8 actual goals. Sassuolo beat their projection by 3.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sudtirol outscored their 0.81 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sassuolo attack 1.48 / defence 0.96 against Sudtirol attack 0.80 / defence 1.02, drawn from 21/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sassuolo 59% | Draw 27% | Sudtirol 14%, with Sassuolo to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sassuolo 56%, Sudtirol 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sassuolo's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Sudtirol's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sassuolo 1.34 PPG, Sudtirol 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sassuolo win broke the near-deadlock. Sassuolo (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.66 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sudtirol (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights