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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Sassuolo run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Reggiana.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sassuolo beat Reggiana 5-1 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 31, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sassuolo 1.77 xG and Reggiana 0.83 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Sassuolo beat their projection by 3.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sassuolo attack 1.40 / defence 0.91 against Reggiana attack 0.82 / defence 1.03, drawn from 30/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sassuolo 58% | Draw 26% | Reggiana 16%, with Sassuolo to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sassuolo 54%, Reggiana 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sassuolo's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Reggiana's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sassuolo 1.46 PPG, Reggiana 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sassuolo win broke the near-deadlock. Sassuolo (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.74 average — above their attacking norm. Reggiana (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights