Sassuolo 5-1 Reggiana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sassuolo at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sassuolo vs Reggiana encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore plays host to Sassuolo versus Reggiana in Serie B, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off: Saturday 29 March 2025 at 18:30 UTC.
Form
Sassuolo (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Sassuolo's home record at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore: 9W 1D 0L from 10 Serie B appearances (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.30 — Sassuolo are significantly better at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore than their overall form suggests.
Reggiana's overall Serie B record this term: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D D D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Reggiana have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Sassuolo. A 1.50 PPG lead over Reggiana (2.30 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Sassuolo 1W, Reggiana 0W, 0D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Nov 2024, ended 2–0 with Sassuolo winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Sassuolo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Reggiana goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sassuolo 59% versus Reggiana 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sassuolo 54% | Reggiana 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sassuolo 1.77 xG and Reggiana 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sassuolo attack 1.400 / defence 0.906 | Reggiana attack 0.818 / defence 1.033. League average goals — home 1.226 / away 1.121. Sassuolo carry an above-average attack strength of 1.400 — their λ of 1.77 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 30 Sassuolo games / 68 Reggiana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sassuolo 58% | Draw 26% | Reggiana 16%. Fair-value odds: Sassuolo 1.72 | Draw 3.85 | Reggiana 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Sassuolo (58%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sassuolo at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Sassuolo 50% | Reggiana 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sassuolo vs Reggiana | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Mar 2025, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sassuolo 58% | Draw 26% | Reggiana 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 48% | xG Sassuolo 1.77 / Reggiana 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Sassuolo attack 1.400 / def 0.906 | Reggiana attack 0.818 / def 1.033 | league avg home 1.226 / away 1.121 • Poisson stance: Sassuolo (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Sassuolo xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Reggiana xG
48%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sassuolo vs Reggiana kick off?
Sassuolo vs Reggiana kicked off at 18:30 on Saturday 29 March 2025 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What was the final score in Sassuolo vs Reggiana?
Sassuolo 5 - 1 Reggiana.
Where is Sassuolo vs Reggiana being played?
The match is being played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What competition is Sassuolo vs Reggiana part of?
Sassuolo vs Reggiana is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sassuolo vs Reggiana?
Our statistical model gives Sassuolo a 58% chance of winning, Reggiana a 16% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sassuolo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sassuolo vs Reggiana?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Sassuolo and Reggiana will score (BTTS).
Will Sassuolo vs Reggiana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and Reggiana?
Record (1 meetings): Sassuolo 1W | Draws 0 | Reggiana 0W.
What form are Sassuolo and Reggiana in?
Sassuolo (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-D-W. Reggiana (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Sassuolo's attack rating (1.40) and Reggiana's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.77 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Reggiana's attack (0.82x) against Sassuolo's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 30/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 2-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sassuolo Win
58%
1.71
26%
3.88
16%
6.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Sassuolo xG
Total xG
2.60
0.83
Reggiana xG
1.71
58%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
6.29
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
44%
2.30
17%
5.88
Win to Nil
25%
3.94
3%
37.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.1 | 10.9 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.7 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.9 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sassuolo vs Reggiana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Sassuolo and Reggiana expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Sassuolo and 0.83 for Reggiana, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Sassuolo vs Reggiana?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 68 outings, Sassuolo have picked up 1.46 PPG on a 28W 15D 25L record — W-D-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Reggiana's form line: 17W 28D 23L from 68 games, 1.16 PPG, last five D-D-D-L-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.46 PPG for Sassuolo against 1.16 for Reggiana. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Sassuolo have posted 1.71 PPG from 34 outings (17W 7D 10L).
On the road, Reggiana have gone 10W 11D 13L from 34 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sassuolo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sassuolo are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Reggiana are on 1.00 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 68 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sassuolo
Current Season
Reggiana
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sassuolo and Reggiana in coming into this match?
Sassuolo have gone 28W 15D 25L in their last 68 games (1.46 PPG), while Reggiana have gone 17W 28D 23L in their last 68 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sassuolo at home or Reggiana away?
Sassuolo's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sassuolo at home: 1.71 PPG; Reggiana away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Sassuolo
0
Draws
0
Reggiana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and Reggiana?
From 2 meetings on record, Sassuolo have won 2, Reggiana have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sassuolo and Reggiana last play each other?
They last met on 29 March 2025, when Sassuolo 5-1 Reggiana.
Who has won more matches between Sassuolo and Reggiana?
Sassuolo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sassuolo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Reggiana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sassuolo 56%, Reggiana 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Sassuolo) and 38% (Reggiana).
On the defensive side: Reggiana in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sassuolo home games / Reggiana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sassuolo play Reggiana?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Sassuolo's recent matches and 44% of Reggiana's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sassuolo vs Reggiana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Sassuolo's recent games and 38% of Reggiana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sassuolo and Reggiana tend to score early?
Sassuolo have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Reggiana in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sassuolo run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Reggiana.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sassuolo beat Reggiana 5-1 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 31, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sassuolo 1.77 xG and Reggiana 0.83 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Sassuolo beat their projection by 3.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sassuolo attack 1.40 / defence 0.91 against Reggiana attack 0.82 / defence 1.03, drawn from 30/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sassuolo 58% | Draw 26% | Reggiana 16%, with Sassuolo to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sassuolo 54%, Reggiana 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sassuolo's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Reggiana's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sassuolo 1.46 PPG, Reggiana 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sassuolo win broke the near-deadlock. Sassuolo (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.74 average — above their attacking norm. Reggiana (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.