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Prediction vindicated as Sassuolo edge out Pisa 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sassuolo beat Pisa 1-0 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 28, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sassuolo 1.66 xG and Pisa 1.07 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Pisa landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sassuolo attack 1.56 / defence 0.97 against Pisa attack 1.01 / defence 0.88, drawn from 27/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sassuolo 49% | Draw 28% | Pisa 23%, with Sassuolo to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sassuolo 55%, Pisa 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sassuolo's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Pisa's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sassuolo 1.42 PPG, Pisa 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sassuolo win broke the near-deadlock. Sassuolo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line. Pisa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.16 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights