🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Sassuolo at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sassuolo vs Pisa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Pisa travel to MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore to take on Sassuolo. The game is scheduled for Saturday 1 March 2025, 16:15 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Sassuolo stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Serie B matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sassuolo, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Sassuolo have posted 10W 0D 0L at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore — 3.00 PPG. They are averaging 3.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.20 — Sassuolo are significantly better at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore than their overall form suggests.

Pisa — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Pisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Pisa's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sassuolo 2.20 PPG, Pisa 2.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Sassuolo, 1 for Pisa and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 26 Dec 2024, ended 1–3 with Pisa winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Sassuolo in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).

Pisa in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sassuolo 58% and Pisa 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sassuolo 55% | Pisa 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sassuolo 1.66 xG and Pisa 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sassuolo attack 1.559 / defence 0.969 | Pisa attack 1.011 / defence 0.876. League average goals — home 1.217 / away 1.096. Sassuolo carry an above-average attack strength of 1.559 — their λ of 1.66 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 27 Sassuolo games / 65 Pisa games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Sassuolo 49% | Draw 28% | Pisa 23%. Fair-value odds: Sassuolo 2.04 | Draw 3.57 | Pisa 4.35. Sassuolo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Sassuolo are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sassuolo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.74 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Sassuolo 50% | Pisa 50%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights