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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Sassuolo edge out Palermo 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sassuolo beat Palermo 2-1 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sassuolo 1.77 xG and Palermo 0.95 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sassuolo attack 1.53 / defence 0.92 against Palermo attack 0.96 / defence 0.95, drawn from 17/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sassuolo 54% | Draw 28% | Palermo 18%, with Sassuolo to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sassuolo 53%, Palermo 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sassuolo's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Palermo's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sassuolo 1.27 PPG, Palermo 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sassuolo win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights