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Shock result as Frosinone defy the odds to beat Sassuolo 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Frosinone beat Sassuolo 0-1 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sassuolo 1.61 xG and Frosinone 0.84 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sassuolo fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sassuolo attack 1.28 / defence 0.95 against Frosinone attack 0.77 / defence 0.97, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sassuolo 55% | Draw 27% | Frosinone 18%, with Sassuolo to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Frosinone win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sassuolo 53%, Frosinone 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sassuolo's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Frosinone's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Sassuolo arrived the stronger side — 1.49 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Frosinone winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sassuolo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.78 scoring average — below par going forward. Frosinone (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights