Sassuolo 0-1 Frosinone – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sassuolo at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sassuolo vs Frosinone fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Frosinone make the trip to MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore to face Sassuolo in Serie B, Regular Season - 34. The match kicks off on Tuesday 13 May 2025 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
Sassuolo (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Sassuolo have gone 8W 1D 1L this season (10 games, 2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Sassuolo are significantly better at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore than their overall form suggests.
Frosinone's overall Serie B record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Frosinone's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.00 PPG for Sassuolo against 1.60 for Frosinone. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Sassuolo lead 2W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 14 Dec 2024, ended 2–1 with Sassuolo winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Sassuolo — key trading statistics (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games).
Frosinone — key trading statistics (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sassuolo 59% versus Frosinone 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sassuolo 53% | Frosinone 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sassuolo 1.61 xG and Frosinone 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sassuolo attack 1.276 / defence 0.948 | Frosinone attack 0.766 / defence 0.966. League average goals — home 1.309 / away 1.160. Sassuolo carry an above-average attack strength of 1.276 — their λ of 1.61 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 37 Sassuolo games / 37 Frosinone games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sassuolo 55% | Draw 27% | Frosinone 18%. Fair-value odds: Sassuolo 1.82 | Draw 3.70 | Frosinone 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Sassuolo (55%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sassuolo are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.46 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Sassuolo 50% | Frosinone 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sassuolo vs Frosinone | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore • Kick-off: Tuesday 13 May 2025, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sassuolo 55% | Draw 27% | Frosinone 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 47% | xG Sassuolo 1.61 / Frosinone 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Sassuolo attack 1.276 / def 0.948 | Frosinone attack 0.766 / def 0.966 | league avg home 1.309 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: Sassuolo (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Sassuolo xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Frosinone xG
47%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sassuolo vs Frosinone kick off?
Sassuolo vs Frosinone kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 13 May 2025 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What was the final score in Sassuolo vs Frosinone?
Sassuolo 0 - 1 Frosinone.
Where is Sassuolo vs Frosinone being played?
The match is being played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What competition is Sassuolo vs Frosinone part of?
Sassuolo vs Frosinone is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sassuolo vs Frosinone?
Our statistical model gives Sassuolo a 55% chance of winning, Frosinone a 18% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sassuolo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sassuolo vs Frosinone?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Sassuolo and Frosinone will score (BTTS).
Will Sassuolo vs Frosinone have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and Frosinone?
Record (3 meetings): Sassuolo 2W | Draws 0 | Frosinone 1W.
What form are Sassuolo and Frosinone in?
Sassuolo (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Frosinone (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Sassuolo's attack rating (1.28) and Frosinone's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.61 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Frosinone's attack (0.77x) against Sassuolo's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.3%), 2-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sassuolo Win
55%
1.83
27%
3.69
18%
5.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Sassuolo xG
Total xG
2.46
0.84
Frosinone xG
1.83
55%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
5.43
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
20%
5.02
Win to Nil
23%
4.26
4%
27.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.8 | 11.7 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.4 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.0 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sassuolo vs Frosinone?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Sassuolo and Frosinone expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Sassuolo and 0.84 for Frosinone, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Sassuolo vs Frosinone?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sassuolo's recent record stands at 32W 16D 27L from 75 games, a 1.49 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-L in the last five.
Frosinone, meanwhile, have gone 16W 27D 32L across 75 games — 1.00 PPG, with D-D-L-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sassuolo by 0.49 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Frosinone heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Sassuolo have managed 19W 7D 11L from 37 games — 1.73 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Frosinone's away record stands at 5W 13D 19L across 37 trips, a 0.76 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sassuolo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sassuolo are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Frosinone are on 1.07 scored and 1.59 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Frosinone in 60%.
Last 75 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sassuolo
Current Season
Frosinone
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sassuolo and Frosinone in coming into this match?
Sassuolo have gone 32W 16D 27L in their last 75 games (1.49 PPG), while Frosinone have gone 16W 27D 32L in their last 75 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sassuolo at home or Frosinone away?
Sassuolo's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sassuolo at home: 1.73 PPG; Frosinone away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie A, Serie B all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sassuolo have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Frosinone — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Sassuolo
0
Draws
2
Frosinone
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and Frosinone?
From 4 meetings on record, Sassuolo have won 2, Frosinone have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sassuolo and Frosinone last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2025, when Sassuolo 0-1 Frosinone.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sassuolo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Frosinone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sassuolo 54%, Frosinone 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 49% (Sassuolo) and 40% (Frosinone).
On the defensive side: Frosinone in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sassuolo home games / Frosinone away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sassuolo play Frosinone?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Sassuolo's recent matches and 54% of Frosinone's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sassuolo vs Frosinone usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 49% of Sassuolo's recent games and 40% of Frosinone's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sassuolo and Frosinone tend to score early?
Sassuolo have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Frosinone in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Frosinone defy the odds to beat Sassuolo 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Frosinone beat Sassuolo 0-1 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sassuolo 1.61 xG and Frosinone 0.84 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sassuolo fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sassuolo attack 1.28 / defence 0.95 against Frosinone attack 0.77 / defence 0.97, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sassuolo 55% | Draw 27% | Frosinone 18%, with Sassuolo to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Frosinone win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sassuolo 53%, Frosinone 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sassuolo's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Frosinone's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Sassuolo arrived the stronger side — 1.49 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Frosinone winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sassuolo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.78 scoring average — below par going forward. Frosinone (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.