🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Sassuolo cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Carrarese.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sassuolo beat Carrarese 2-0 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sassuolo 2.29 xG and Carrarese 0.82 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Carrarese landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sassuolo attack 1.48 / defence 0.92 against Carrarese attack 0.77 / defence 1.19, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sassuolo 70% | Draw 19% | Carrarese 11%, with Sassuolo to win its most likely call at 70%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sassuolo 56%, Carrarese 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sassuolo's trading profile (34 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.

Carrarese's trading profile (34 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Sassuolo arrived the stronger side — 2.29 PPG against 1.21. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Sassuolo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line. Carrarese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.81 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights