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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Sassuolo cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Brescia.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sassuolo beat Brescia 2-0 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 26, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sassuolo 1.91 xG and Brescia 1.10 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Brescia landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sassuolo attack 1.60 / defence 1.04 against Brescia attack 0.96 / defence 0.97, drawn from 25/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sassuolo 55% | Draw 24% | Brescia 21%, with Sassuolo to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sassuolo 57%, Brescia 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sassuolo's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Brescia's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sassuolo 1.40 PPG, Brescia 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sassuolo win broke the near-deadlock. Sassuolo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line. Brescia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights