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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Sassuolo and Bari share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 29, as Sassuolo and Bari drew 1-1 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sassuolo 1.66 xG and Bari 0.79 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sassuolo attack 1.51 / defence 0.91 against Bari attack 0.83 / defence 0.91, drawn from 28/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sassuolo 56% | Draw 27% | Bari 16%, with Sassuolo to win its most likely call at 56%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sassuolo 54%, Bari 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sassuolo's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Bari's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sassuolo 1.44 PPG, Bari 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sassuolo (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights