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Stalemate at Sampdoria's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 30, as Sampdoria and Venezia drew 0-0 in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sampdoria 1.15 xG and Venezia 1.77 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sampdoria fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Venezia landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sampdoria attack 0.92 / defence 1.09 against Venezia attack 1.44 / defence 0.93, drawn from 67/29 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sampdoria 24% | Draw 25% | Venezia 51%, with Venezia to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sampdoria 39%, Venezia 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sampdoria's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Venezia's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sampdoria 1.09 PPG, Venezia 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sampdoria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.91 average — tighter than their form line. Venezia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights