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Prediction vindicated as Sampdoria edge out Salernitana 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sampdoria beat Salernitana 1-0 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sampdoria 0.94 xG and Salernitana 0.49 xG, a combined 1.43. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sampdoria attack 0.66 / defence 0.83 against Salernitana attack 0.53 / defence 1.10, drawn from 74/36 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sampdoria 44% | Draw 39% | Salernitana 17%, with Sampdoria to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 17%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 43% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 25% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sampdoria 46%, Salernitana 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sampdoria's trading profile (74 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Salernitana's trading profile (74 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Sampdoria arrived the stronger side — 1.23 PPG against 0.76. That form edge translated into the three points. Sampdoria (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Salernitana (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights