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Prediction vindicated as Sampdoria edge out Reggiana 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sampdoria beat Reggiana 2-1 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sampdoria 1.41 xG and Reggiana 1.03 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sampdoria attack 0.93 / defence 0.98 against Reggiana attack 0.97 / defence 1.14, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sampdoria 44% | Draw 30% | Reggiana 26%, with Sampdoria to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sampdoria 36%, Reggiana 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sampdoria's trading profile (55 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Reggiana's trading profile (55 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sampdoria 1.04 PPG, Reggiana 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sampdoria win broke the near-deadlock. Sampdoria (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights