Sampdoria 2-1 Reggiana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sampdoria at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sampdoria vs Reggiana fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sampdoria and Reggiana meet at Stadio Luigi Ferraris in Serie B, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 27 December 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Sampdoria (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sampdoria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sampdoria have posted 5W 2D 3L at Stadio Luigi Ferraris — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Sampdoria are significantly better at Stadio Luigi Ferraris than their overall form suggests.
Reggiana have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Reggiana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Reggiana have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Sampdoria 2W, Reggiana 1W, 1D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Mar 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Sampdoria half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Reggiana half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sampdoria 51% versus Reggiana 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sampdoria 36% | Reggiana 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sampdoria 1.41 xG and Reggiana 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sampdoria attack 0.929 / defence 0.981 | Reggiana attack 0.973 / defence 1.135. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.075. Data: 55 Sampdoria games / 55 Reggiana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sampdoria 44% | Draw 30% | Reggiana 26%. Fair-value odds: Sampdoria 2.27 | Draw 3.33 | Reggiana 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sampdoria at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sampdoria if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Sampdoria 40% | Reggiana 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sampdoria vs Reggiana | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadio Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Dec 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sampdoria 44% | Draw 30% | Reggiana 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Sampdoria 1.41 / Reggiana 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Sampdoria attack 0.929 / def 0.981 | Reggiana attack 0.973 / def 1.135 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.075 • Poisson stance: Sampdoria (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Sampdoria xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Reggiana xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sampdoria vs Reggiana kick off?
Sampdoria vs Reggiana kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 27 December 2025 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Sampdoria vs Reggiana?
Sampdoria 2 - 1 Reggiana.
Where is Sampdoria vs Reggiana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Sampdoria vs Reggiana part of?
Sampdoria vs Reggiana is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sampdoria vs Reggiana?
Our statistical model gives Sampdoria a 44% chance of winning, Reggiana a 26% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Sampdoria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sampdoria vs Reggiana?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Sampdoria and Reggiana will score (BTTS).
Will Sampdoria vs Reggiana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Reggiana?
Record (4 meetings): Sampdoria 2W | Draws 1 | Reggiana 1W.
What form are Sampdoria and Reggiana in?
Sampdoria (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-D. Reggiana (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Sampdoria's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Reggiana's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. Flip it around — Reggiana's attack (0.97x) against Sampdoria's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sampdoria Win
44%
2.25
30%
3.37
26%
3.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Sampdoria xG
Total xG
2.44
1.03
Reggiana xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
3.86
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
24%
4.11
Win to Nil
16%
6.28
6%
15.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.6 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.9 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sampdoria vs Reggiana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Sampdoria and Reggiana expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Sampdoria and 1.03 for Reggiana, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Sampdoria vs Reggiana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sampdoria come into this having played 55 games, going 12W 21D 22L for 1.04 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-D. The sample for Sampdoria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Reggiana sit at 1.16 PPG from 55 outings (16W 16D 23L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Reggiana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.04 PPG for Sampdoria against 1.16 for Reggiana. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Sampdoria's home form reads 10W 9D 9L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.39 PPG return.
Away from home, Reggiana have taken 1.00 points per game from 28 outings (7W 7D 14L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sampdoria are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Reggiana are on 1.15 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sampdoria
Blended
Reggiana
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sampdoria and Reggiana in coming into this match?
Sampdoria have gone 12W 21D 22L in their last 55 games (1.04 PPG), while Reggiana have gone 16W 16D 23L in their last 55 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sampdoria at home or Reggiana away?
Sampdoria's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sampdoria at home: 1.39 PPG; Reggiana away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 8 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sampdoria have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Reggiana — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Sampdoria
1
Draws
2
Reggiana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Reggiana?
From 6 meetings on record, Sampdoria have won 3, Reggiana have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sampdoria and Reggiana last play each other?
They last met on 8 May 2026, when Reggiana 1-0 Sampdoria.
Who has won more matches between Sampdoria and Reggiana?
Sampdoria have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sampdoria see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Reggiana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sampdoria 32%, Reggiana 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Sampdoria) and 50% (Reggiana).
On the defensive side: Sampdoria keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Sampdoria have failed to score in 39% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sampdoria home games / Reggiana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sampdoria play Reggiana?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Sampdoria's recent matches and 61% of Reggiana's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sampdoria vs Reggiana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Sampdoria's recent games and 50% of Reggiana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sampdoria and Reggiana tend to score early?
Sampdoria have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Reggiana in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sampdoria edge out Reggiana 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sampdoria beat Reggiana 2-1 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sampdoria 1.41 xG and Reggiana 1.03 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sampdoria attack 0.93 / defence 0.98 against Reggiana attack 0.97 / defence 1.14, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sampdoria 44% | Draw 30% | Reggiana 26%, with Sampdoria to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sampdoria 36%, Reggiana 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sampdoria's trading profile (55 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Reggiana's trading profile (55 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sampdoria 1.04 PPG, Reggiana 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sampdoria win broke the near-deadlock. Sampdoria (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.