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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Sampdoria and Palermo share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sampdoria and Palermo finished level at 3-3 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sampdoria 0.97 xG and Palermo 1.11 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Sampdoria beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Palermo outscored their 1.11 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sampdoria attack 0.95 / defence 0.94 against Palermo attack 1.12 / defence 0.79, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sampdoria 30% | Draw 32% | Palermo 38%, with Palermo to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sampdoria 39%, Palermo 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sampdoria's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Palermo's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Palermo arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 1.11. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sampdoria (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.84 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Palermo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights