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Dominant Monza run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Sampdoria.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Monza beat Sampdoria 0-3 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 35, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sampdoria 1.08 xG and Monza 0.99 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Sampdoria fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Monza outscored their 0.99 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sampdoria attack 0.85 / defence 0.93 against Monza attack 0.98 / defence 0.91, drawn from 72/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sampdoria 35% | Draw 35% | Monza 30%, with Sampdoria to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Monza win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sampdoria 39%, Monza 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sampdoria's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Monza's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sampdoria 1.15 PPG, Monza 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Monza win broke the near-deadlock. Sampdoria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Monza (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights