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Modena cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Sampdoria.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Modena beat Sampdoria 0-2 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 1, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sampdoria 1.16 xG and Modena 1.03 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Sampdoria fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Modena outscored their 1.03 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sampdoria attack 0.89 / defence 0.91 against Modena attack 1.02 / defence 1.00, drawn from 38/38 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Sampdoria 37% | Draw 33% | Modena 30%, with Sampdoria to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Modena win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sampdoria 37%, Modena 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sampdoria's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Modena's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sampdoria 1.13 PPG, Modena 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Modena win broke the near-deadlock. Sampdoria (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Modena (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights