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Prediction vindicated as Sampdoria edge out Modena 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sampdoria beat Modena 1-0 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 25, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sampdoria 1.08 xG and Modena 1.04 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Modena landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sampdoria attack 0.78 / defence 0.96 against Modena attack 0.98 / defence 1.14, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sampdoria 34% | Draw 34% | Modena 32%, with Sampdoria to win its most likely call at 34%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sampdoria 48%, Modena 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sampdoria's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Modena's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sampdoria 1.27 PPG, Modena 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sampdoria win broke the near-deadlock. Sampdoria (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line. Modena (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights