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Prediction vindicated as Sampdoria edge out Juve Stabia 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sampdoria beat Juve Stabia 1-0 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sampdoria 1.51 xG and Juve Stabia 1.07 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Juve Stabia landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sampdoria attack 0.85 / defence 0.97 against Juve Stabia attack 1.01 / defence 1.32, drawn from 50/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sampdoria 44% | Draw 32% | Juve Stabia 24%, with Sampdoria to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sampdoria 39%, Juve Stabia 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sampdoria's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.

Juve Stabia's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Juve Stabia arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Sampdoria winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sampdoria (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.84 average — tighter than their form line. Juve Stabia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights