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Prediction vindicated as Sampdoria edge out Carrarese 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sampdoria beat Carrarese 3-2 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sampdoria 1.47 xG and Carrarese 0.95 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Sampdoria beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Carrarese outscored their 0.95 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sampdoria attack 0.83 / defence 0.90 against Carrarese attack 0.99 / defence 1.31, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sampdoria 48% | Draw 29% | Carrarese 23%, with Sampdoria to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sampdoria 36%, Carrarese 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sampdoria's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Carrarese's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sampdoria 1.02 PPG, Carrarese 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sampdoria win broke the near-deadlock. Sampdoria (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.85 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Carrarese (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights