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Poisson model rates Sampdoria at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sampdoria vs Carrarese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Sampdoria host Carrarese at Stadio Luigi Ferraris in Serie B, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 7 December 2025 at 18:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Serie B games this season, Sampdoria have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sampdoria, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Sampdoria at Stadio Luigi Ferraris this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Luigi Ferraris. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Sampdoria are significantly better at Stadio Luigi Ferraris than their overall form suggests.

Carrarese — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Carrarese, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Carrarese have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sampdoria at 1.00 PPG versus Carrarese's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Sampdoria have won 0, Carrarese 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 25 Apr 2025, ended 0–1 with Carrarese winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Sampdoria in-play and half-time data (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

Carrarese in-play and half-time data (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sampdoria 50% versus Carrarese 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sampdoria 36% | Carrarese 46%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sampdoria 1.47 xG and Carrarese 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sampdoria attack 0.826 / defence 0.901 | Carrarese attack 0.990 / defence 1.310. League average goals — home 1.360 / away 1.066. Carrarese bring a strong defensive rating of 1.310 — this is suppressing Sampdoria's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 Sampdoria games / 52 Carrarese games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Sampdoria 48% | Draw 29% | Carrarese 23%. Fair-value odds: Sampdoria 2.08 | Draw 3.45 | Carrarese 4.35. Sampdoria hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Sampdoria at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sampdoria offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Sampdoria 30% | Carrarese 70%.

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