Sampdoria vs Benevento – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sampdoria at 42%, yet in-form Benevento provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sampdoria vs Benevento fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Luigi Ferraris plays host to Sampdoria versus Benevento in Serie B, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Saturday 21 November 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sampdoria's overall Serie B record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sampdoria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sampdoria have posted 5W 1D 4L at Stadio Luigi Ferraris — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Sampdoria are significantly better at Stadio Luigi Ferraris than their overall form suggests.
Benevento have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Benevento, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Benevento have posted 2W 0D 2L from 4 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Benevento arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading Data
Sampdoria goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games).
Benevento goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sampdoria 70% and Benevento 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sampdoria 50% | Benevento 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sampdoria 1.33 xG and Benevento 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sampdoria attack 1.022 / defence 0.979 | Benevento attack 0.845 / defence 0.995. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.232. Data: 48 Sampdoria games / 10 Benevento games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sampdoria 42% | Draw 31% | Benevento 27%. Fair-value odds: Sampdoria 2.38 | Draw 3.23 | Benevento 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sampdoria at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Benevento (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sampdoria if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.36 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: Sampdoria 40% | Benevento 0% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sampdoria vs Benevento | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadio Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Nov 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sampdoria 42% | Draw 31% | Benevento 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG Sampdoria 1.33 / Benevento 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Sampdoria attack 1.022 / def 0.979 | Benevento attack 0.845 / def 0.995 | league avg home 1.312 / away 1.232 • Poisson stance: Sampdoria (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Sampdoria xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Benevento xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sampdoria vs Benevento kick off?
Sampdoria vs Benevento is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 21 November 2026 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
Where is Sampdoria vs Benevento being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Sampdoria vs Benevento part of?
Sampdoria vs Benevento is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sampdoria vs Benevento?
Our statistical model gives Sampdoria a 42% chance of winning, Benevento a 27% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Sampdoria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sampdoria vs Benevento?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Sampdoria and Benevento will score (BTTS).
Will Sampdoria vs Benevento have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Benevento?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sampdoria and Benevento in?
Sampdoria (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. Benevento (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Sampdoria's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Benevento's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. Flip it around — Benevento's attack (0.84x) against Sampdoria's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 48/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sampdoria Win
42%
2.38
31%
3.18
27%
3.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Sampdoria xG
Total xG
2.36
1.02
Benevento xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
3.75
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
15%
6.62
7%
14.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 9.7 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 12.9 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.6 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sampdoria vs Benevento?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Sampdoria and Benevento expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Sampdoria and 1.02 for Benevento, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Sampdoria vs Benevento?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 10 outings, Sampdoria have picked up 0.80 PPG on a 2W 2D 6L record — L-L-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Sampdoria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Benevento's form line: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games, 1.50 PPG, last five W-D-W-D-L. The sample for Benevento is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Benevento are the form team by 0.70 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sampdoria.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Sampdoria have posted 1.50 PPG from 4 outings (2W 0D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 0.80 PPG overall — Sampdoria are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Benevento have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Sampdoria are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Benevento are on 1.40 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sampdoria have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 10 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sampdoria
Blended
Benevento
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sampdoria and Benevento in coming into this match?
Sampdoria have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 games (0.80 PPG), while Benevento have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sampdoria at home or Benevento away?
Sampdoria's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sampdoria at home: 1.50 PPG; Benevento away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Sampdoria or Benevento been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sampdoria have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their recent games, Benevento in 30%.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Benevento tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sampdoria 75%, Benevento 0% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Sampdoria) and 25% (Benevento).
On the defensive side: Benevento in 50%; Benevento in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sampdoria home games / Benevento away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sampdoria play Benevento?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Sampdoria's recent matches and 0% of Benevento's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sampdoria vs Benevento usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 75% of Sampdoria's recent games and 25% of Benevento's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sampdoria and Benevento tend to score early?
Sampdoria have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Benevento in 25% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.