Sampdoria vs Benevento – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sampdoria at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sampdoria vs Benevento fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Luigi Ferraris plays host to Sampdoria versus Benevento in Serie B, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Saturday 21 November 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sampdoria's overall Serie B record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Sampdoria have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sampdoria have posted 5W 2D 3L at Stadio Luigi Ferraris — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Luigi Ferraris. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Benevento have collected 1.00 PPG across 4 Serie B outings this season: 1W 1D 2L. Last five: L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.25 per game is modest, conceding 1.25 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Benevento have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
Sampdoria goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
Benevento goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (4 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sampdoria 75% and Benevento 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sampdoria 50% | Benevento 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sampdoria 1.43 xG and Benevento 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sampdoria attack 0.932 / defence 1.085 | Benevento attack 0.699 / defence 1.107. League average goals — home 1.391 / away 1.158. Data: 41 Sampdoria games / 3 Benevento games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sampdoria 50% | Draw 27% | Benevento 23%. Fair-value odds: Sampdoria 2.00 | Draw 3.70 | Benevento 4.35. Sampdoria hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sampdoria at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sampdoria if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.31 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: Sampdoria 30% | Benevento 75%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sampdoria vs Benevento | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadio Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Nov 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sampdoria 50% | Draw 27% | Benevento 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 45% | xG Sampdoria 1.43 / Benevento 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Sampdoria attack 0.932 / def 1.085 | Benevento attack 0.699 / def 1.107 | league avg home 1.391 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Sampdoria (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Sampdoria xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Benevento xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sampdoria vs Benevento kick off?
Sampdoria vs Benevento is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 21 November 2026 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
Where is Sampdoria vs Benevento being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Sampdoria vs Benevento part of?
Sampdoria vs Benevento is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sampdoria vs Benevento?
Our statistical model gives Sampdoria a 50% chance of winning, Benevento a 23% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sampdoria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sampdoria vs Benevento?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Sampdoria and Benevento will score (BTTS).
Will Sampdoria vs Benevento have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Benevento?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sampdoria and Benevento in?
Sampdoria (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Benevento (all comps): 1W-1D-2L in 4 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 1.25 | L5 L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Sampdoria's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Benevento's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.43. Flip it around — Benevento's attack (0.70x) against Sampdoria's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 41/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.6%), 0-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sampdoria Win
50%
2.00
27%
3.72
23%
4.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Sampdoria xG
Total xG
2.31
0.88
Benevento xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
4.34
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.25
55%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
42%
2.41
24%
4.20
Win to Nil
21%
4.80
5%
18.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 8.7 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.2 | 12.5 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 8.9 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sampdoria vs Benevento?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Sampdoria and Benevento expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Sampdoria and 0.88 for Benevento, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Sampdoria vs Benevento?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 4 outings, Sampdoria have picked up 0.25 PPG on a 0W 1D 3L record — L-D-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Sampdoria, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Benevento's form line: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-D-L-W. It's still early in the season for Benevento, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Benevento are the form team by 0.75 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sampdoria.
Attack vs Defence
Sampdoria are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Benevento are on 1.25 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sampdoria have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Benevento in 75%.
Last 4 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sampdoria
Early Season
Benevento
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sampdoria and Benevento in coming into this match?
Sampdoria have gone 0W 1D 3L in their last 4 games (0.25 PPG), while Benevento have gone 1W 1D 2L in their last 4 (1.00 PPG).
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Benevento see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 75% for Sampdoria, 75% for Benevento — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Sampdoria) and 50% (Benevento).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sampdoria home games / Benevento away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sampdoria play Benevento?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Sampdoria's games and 75% of Benevento's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sampdoria vs Benevento usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Sampdoria's recent games and 50% of Benevento's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sampdoria and Benevento tend to score early?
Sampdoria have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Benevento in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.