🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Bari cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Sampdoria.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bari beat Sampdoria 0-2 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 27, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sampdoria 1.53 xG and Bari 0.87 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Sampdoria fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Bari outscored their 0.87 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sampdoria attack 1.05 / defence 1.00 against Bari attack 0.79 / defence 1.15, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sampdoria 52% | Draw 27% | Bari 21%, with Sampdoria to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Bari win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sampdoria 39%, Bari 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sampdoria's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Bari's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sampdoria 1.12 PPG, Bari 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bari win broke the near-deadlock. Sampdoria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bari (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.81 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights